We Can Freakin' Get This Done!!!

In my previous 2 articles I discussed the challenges that face this country regarding our energy policy. In the first article I attempted to define the severity and the urgency of this problem: We have a few short decades to implement a 20 year solution or we will face catastrophic consequences ( http://spoon-spoonworld.blogspot.com/2010/07/fucked.html ). In this article I site three dates that illustrate the urgency in which we must proceed.

2015 – We will have used up all the easy to access oil. I am not predicting that we will run out of all oil, but that oil will become more expensive to locate and produce.

“By 2015 Easy to access oil will be unable to keep up with demand”. John Heifmeister, former president of Shell Oil

This prediction is 5 YEARS AWAY!!!

2020 – We will need a new energy source equal to half the energy we are currently producing. This prediction is 10 years away.

2054 – The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will cause a 3° temperature rise. Many experts think this will cause significant changes to our way of life. This is 44 years away. This is significant because once this occurs the effects will be very hard to reverse.

My solution for this crisis could be enacted in 4 phases and I have marked these phases by milestones. These milestones are what I believe we as a country need to do to combat this crisis. I wrote about the first of these milestones in the previous article ( http://spoon-spoonworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/tick-tock.html ). The following is a summary of the 4 phases.

Phase 1 – Change the Economics; Build a power grid

Phase 2 – Massive Research & Development effort; Education; Start building Magnetic Rail

Phase 3 – Build a lot of stuff; Implement penalty phase of tax structure

Phase 4 – Redesign cities

I have structured these articles by setting what our goals should be by year 1, year 5, year 10, and year 20. We should not wait until the specified year to start these things; rather, by the specified year we should have made progress in a given area.

Year 1 – Phase 1

http://spoon-spoonworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/tick-tock.html

Year 5 – Phase 2

Education

By year 5 there needs to be a massive re-education of our workforce. This energy revolution is going to create many new opportunities; however, it is also going to make many current jobs obsolete. A significant part of our workforce will have to be retrained. This is a necessity. To ignore this reality is to invite economic calamity. The current unemployment situation highlights this reality. There are many people who will never again have a job similar to the one they just lost because there are some jobs that ARE NEVER COMING BACK. These people have to be trained to do something else. Part of this can be done by reforming the unemployment system to allow a training component in addition to just giving people money. Employers could also be encouraged to give their employees training. A big part of training for energy jobs (at least at the beginning) is going to have to be done by the government. I suggest using community college infrastructure to offer certification and training in green energy jobs. In this economy we need a mechanism to retrain our work force regularly.

R & D

We also need to conduct massive research & development. The technology available today is sufficient to solve most of our problems, but there will have to be many improvements to technology to help us completely solve this problem. We also need to find more efficient ways to make the things we are currently making. I suggest that the government provide incentives to private industry to conduct most of this R&D. Creating a new government agency to conduct this R&D may be a good long-term goal, but in the short term it may be best to encourage private industry to do this.

Magnetic Rail – Part 1

The primary action that the government must take according to Phase 2 of my plan is to develop (or at the very least incentivize) a magnetic rail system. Many people view this as impossible in the short term and a long-term economic loss. In the context of this pessimism let me discuss some things about magnetic rail.

Magnetic rail (or Maglev or high speed rail) is a technology that uses electro magnets and levitation to propel trains at high speeds. It does not use any fuel, but uses huge amounts of electricity. The fastest of these trains was recently built in China and clocked speeds of 220 mph. Magnetic rail in this phase should have two potential goals.

First, magnetic rail has the potential to replace all the long distance shipping in the United States that is currently done with 18 wheel tractor trailers. If we build a national light speed rail system, companies could ship goods faster and with no fuel costs. Companies have until recently assumed cheap fuel use in their economic projections. We all know that this will not always be the case. A shipping method that does not require fossil fuels would be more stable and in the long term more cost effective for business. If we build a power grid and integrate renewable energy sources correctly then we could get our electricity from the sun and from wind power. If we stopped subsidizing oil as I proposed in the first phase of this plan, the price of gas would be $14 a gallon. Now the choice for business becomes (1) fuel a fleet of tractor trailers with $14 gas, or (2) use my light speed rail system that RUNS ON THE SUN!!!!!!

We also have a chance with a national light speed rail system to replace most domestic air travel with light speed rail. In recent summers we have seen what affect the price of gas has on air travel. There is no reason that you can’t go from New York to Florida in 3 hours by light speed rail. I do not mean that Americans should yet use the train for every day travel in this phase. Nor am I saying that this will be done by year 5. However, by year 5 we need to see the beginnings of an initiative to build this system.

Make no mistake: I am talking about putting most truck drivers out of business. I am also talking about making it harder for an already crippled airline industry. That is why the education programs are so important. People already in these jobs have to be able to get retrained. People who are currently employed in these jobs need to begin to retrain themselves NOW. Not wait 5 years from now until they are unemployed.

Year 10 – Phase 3

The Build Phase

By year 10 we need to be totally committed as a country to massive renewable energy building. I believe that wind and solar power should be the backbone of this new energy strategy. This needs to be a gigantic effort. By year 10 our power grid should be complete and the economic incentives should be in place which should lead to the production of clean energy. The best way to have this stuff built is for it to be built by private investors. It is the government’s job to ensure the marketplace favors the production of clean energy. It will be private industry properly motivated and incentivized to get this stuff built.

By this time we also need to be redesigning the subways and transportation systems in our inner cities. We need better methods for getting large groups of people from place to place. As people have to change jobs quickly and frequently, there are going to have to be ways for people to get around. The public transportation systems of this country are woefully inadequate. IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE YOUR CAR TO THE TRAIN STATION THEN THAT IS A SUCKY TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM!!! We have to resolve the problem of how you go the last 10 miles once you get to your “destination” by train or public transportation. The “last 10K” scenario is something that city planners have been trying to redesign for years. Several options using current technology have already presented themselves. I believe that a massive R&D effort will lead us to something that will be effective.

Penalty Phase

By year 10 the penalty phase of the conservationist tax structure discussed in Phase 1 will be fully implemented – after 10 years of policy and incentives. Anyone still unprepared will be PAYING THROUGH THE NOSE BY YEAR 10. If you are still driving an SUV, tough. You are getting taxed. If you still want an energy IN-efficient appliance, too bad. You will be taxed. I also propose a tax for driving into a city like that imposed in London. If you are a business and you are still engaging in bad energy production you will have to pay for it. By this time these bad decisions will come directly out of your profit margin. Also, oil and coal will be completely unsubsidized (see article about year 1). That means everyone will be paying the full price of fossil fuels. These policies would have been in place for 10 years. We as a country will either become more energy efficient or we will pay for our energy inefficiency (and then use the money to help those that are energy efficient become more energy efficient).

Phase 4 – Year 20

City Redesign

By year 20 we will have had to have begun redesigning our cities. Urbanization is one of the biggest uses of energy. It is silly to think the population of this country will not increase. It is equally as naïve to think that the way cities are currently constructed will be sustainable in a world where traditional energy sources are less available. Most of this technology will be invented after the massive R&D effort mentioned in Phase 2. Having said that, there are some principles I think we should apply to our city redesign.

Urban Farming

I have to admit that this is a concept that I have known about for a while. I kind of dismissed this idea until my cousin Justin made a very good case for this practice. It kills multiple birds with one stone. There are lots of vacant lots in many inner cities across this country. There are a lot of condemned buildings taking up space. There is unemployment and a need for people in the inner city to find well paying jobs. There is also the problem of feeding a growing population, especially as the percentage of farmers decreases. The main problem that relates to our energy crisis is that cities often have to import food from far away. This requires fossil fuels to ship these foods and more energy for refrigeration the food as it travels. A solution that could potentially solve all of these problems is to turn all the vacant lots and condemned buildings into…FARMLAND!!!

Unemployed people in the inner city could get an honest well-paying job as a farmer. The condemned buildings and drug houses and nasty vacant lots would be replaced by farmland. There would be less food shipped from all over the place to sustain cities. There would be more people growing more food. I won’t even mention the numerous studies that speak to the positive effects of a city with parks and green areas instead of vacant lots. Everybody wins. Before you dismiss this as something that is impossible consider that Detroit is attempting and urban farming initiative in the wake of the economic havoc going on in the car industry.

Additional Development

There is a whole list of things that can be used to actually redesign urban buildings. There is a significant amount of space on the roofs of sky scrapers’ that could be utilized: solar panels and other energy generating devices, hydroponic bays to grow food, and algae make energy. Even if you just paint the roof white it would increase energy efficiency. There will undoubtedly be more solutions produced by a 15 year long Research and Development effort. The point is that we have to think about how we design and redesign cities to support a growing population and consume less energy.

Many people may argue that my proposals are impossible and impractical. They will say the transformation is too drastic and the solution is unworkable. My response to this is to point to an episode in our somewhat recent American History: In 1941 Germany was marching all over Europe. They harnessed the resources of every country they occupied. Every people they took over added to their limitless supply of slave labor. The United States entered WWII in 1941. The economy was in a GREAT depression. Over night the United States completely retooled all of their factories to make tanks and planes instead of cars. They then trained a significant percentage of the female population (many who had never worked in factories) to build wartime armaments. This new American workforce then managed to out produce all of Germany and the Axis Powers. This retooled American workforce build more stuff than all of the countries in Europe COMBINED!!! And they did it over night while everyone said it was impossible.

We can still get out of this? Will there be bumps along the way? YES. Will there be unanticipated consequences? YES. Will it be difficult? ABSOLUTLEY. Will our lifestyles be completely different after this transformation? YES. Will these policies result in a total social, political, and economic upheaval? YES. Is this plan as I have presented it flawed? DEFINATLY. I do not believe that a solution is impossible. What I do believe is that we have ZERO time to fart around. We do not have time to whine about how hard this will be or how unfair the world is. This is the time to get it done. I still believe in our capacity to solve this problem. I still believe that American ingenuity can save us from this. I believe we have the capacity to get this done. I also believe that America can once again lead the world as we endeavor to save this planet.