Obama Report Card (Part 1)

A few weeks ago Barack Obama delivered his first State of the Union address, just a little more than a year after he won a decisive victory to become the 44th President of the United States. And now that a year has passed, there are people who are not pleased with the job he has done so far. There are even some who believe he has done nothing at all. This President inherited a huge list of problems that need attention and action. There are also the promises he made as a candidate. And, there are several things that I want to see this country accomplish. I have decided to evaluate what President Obama has done during this past year, giving him a grade on some of the major issues.

Economy B

Many people will ask, "How can you give Obama a B in this category when every news report says the economy is in the toilet?" Here is how. The Gross Domestic Product is an indicator of how big the economy is. In George Bush’s last year in office the GDP fell 3 out of 4 quarters. The last 3 months of Goober’s presidency the GDP fell by 6% in 3 months. Six months into Obama’s term, the GDP was growing by 4%. Many people have made a big deal about unemployment being at 10% (and they should). One in 10 people not working is not good for an economy. It was reported that last month that the economy lost 85,000 jobs. This sounds like a huge number until you compare it with the 700,000 jobs that were lost the last month of the Bush Administration.

Many of President Obama’s opponents also site the TARP legislation as an Obama economic misstep. The TARP was signed into law in the fall of 2008 WHILE GEORGE BUSH WAS PRESIDNT. Granted, Senator Obama did vote for TARP and Obama was responsible for the distribution of the second half of the TARP. At worst, Obama can only be blamed for continuing the policy of his predecessor. I was completely against the bank bail outs. I stated this in the article titled ‘Bail This’ which I wrote last December (http://spoon-spoonworld.blogspot.com/2008/12/bail-this.html). I think the mistake that this administration made by not demanding more from the banks. The stipulation could have been to ensure that the banks lend instead of buying interests in other banks. Because this stipulation was not made, the big banks got even bigger and at the same time lending did not increase. It also would have been better to attach financial industry reform to this TARP money rather than fight the fight the administration is fighting now. They could have all the reform they wanted while the banks were the most desperate.

Obama was also criticized for bailing out the auto industry. I have a feeling that if he did not bail out the auto industry that he would have been criticized by his opponents for letting the auto industry in this country disappear. I could probably make that same argument for the AIG bailout. Too bad the initial TARP was negotiated by the last guy.

This administration is criticized most for the economic stimulus package that it passed. Many conservatives denounced the stimulus as a prelude to communism. The argument is that the stimulus and many related policies exemplify government interfering in the markets. After the stimulus passed and the free market did not collapse, people began to say that the stimulus didn’t work or that we need a second stimulus. I suggest that the only thing that was wrong with the stimulus is that there were too many tax cuts and not enough infrastructure spending. The tax cuts were added to perhaps appease some of the opponents to the stimulus package.

Critics of the stimulus package also site that unemployment rose past 10% when the administration claimed that the stimulus would keep this from happening. To me this seems like the administration is being blamed for not having a crystal ball. They can be blamed for making a bad guess, but to say that the stimulus had no effect I believe is inaccurate.

One cannot talk about this economy without talking about the deficit. The federal deficit is out of control and this issue is one that is constantly sited as a weakness in the Obama administration. I would first like to say that for the last 10 years I have been YELLING about the deficit to anyone that would listen. In fact, most Republicans I talked to really didn’t care about it. Also, many people have made a big deal about the Obama budget being so expensive compared with George Bush’s budget. There are a couple of factors to consider. First, the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were funded with a supplement and not included in the George Bush's budget. The Bush Administration passed the federal budget, and then passed additional spending that was not included in the budget. The Obama budget accounts for this war time spending without using a supplement. The war spending is included in the Obama budget. The clean up and federal spending for hurricane Katrina was also a supplement. I am not saying that the government should not have spent money on New Orleans, I am simply pointing out that that number is not included in the Bush budget. Obama’s budget, in contrast, includes a disaster relief fund.

The prescription drug plan passed by the Bush Administration in 2003, in my opinion, is the thing that is most responsible for our current deficit. This results in most of the budget deficit. When this drug plan was passed the estimated cost was $434 billion deficit. Then, in 2005, it was revealed that the new estimate for this program was $1.2 TRILLION over 10 years. This number was not included in the Bush budget. During the time all of this legislation was happening, the Bush Administration also had TWO tax cuts. You can’t spend more money and at the same time reduce the money you are taking in. Even Ferris Beuller's teacher can tell you about voodoo economics. All of the discretionary spending that Obama is being criticized for makes up ONLY 8% of the deficit. All the pinko communist liberal programs that are going to in theory bring down capitalism and turn us into France are less than 10% of the annual deficit.

My feeling is that when your house is on fire, YOU DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE TERMITES. The first thing you have to do is PUT THE FIRE OUT. The unemployment rate and the economy not growing is the equivalent of our economic house being on fire. The termites represent our long term deficit. It must be fixed. The termites will eventually eat our house. We must fix our fiscal deficit. I am, however, willing to give this administration time to put out this economic fire. It is a fire that they did not start, but they are the ones who must put it out.

Bill Clinton's last year in office left us with an $800 billion surplus. The Obama budget will result in a $1.2 trillion deficit. That trend happened during the last 8 years and fixing this problem will take more than 1 year to fix. If you are driving a car 80 miles/hour in the wrong direction you cannot simple throw the car in reverse. Blaming this administration for the economy after 1 year when we have been going in the wrong direction for the last 8 years, in my opinion, is unrealistic.

Environment/Energy C

This is the most important issue to me. I think this should have been the first thing this administration really pushed for and not health care. The health care issue may make more political sense, but I think the environment is the biggest problem this generation faces. The administration has done work in this area. They have proposed some very good things. However, I believe that we have a very limited amount of time to fix these problems. I think if we stay on the course we are on for next 30 years we will be facing environmental catastrophe. I also believe that any solution we come up with will take decades to implement. WE HAVE TO FIX THIS NOW!!!!!!! We do not have time to wait for people to come around nor do we have time for moderate procedures that slowly will bend us in the right direction. This is not the time for a smooth transition. This is the time for drastic emergency measures. In this context I cannot give this administration a good grade for this despite the good they have done.

This is most evident in the stimulus package. This could have allowed us to rebuild some of our infrastructure to be more environmentally friendly. We could have invested in magnetic rail. Imagine if there were no 18 wheeled tractor trailers using gas because all of the things shipped in this country where shipped by magnetic rail that uses NO GAS. It would use electricity, so we would need to invest in solar power – A 90 YEAR OLD TECHNOLOGY THAT WE KNOW WORKS. Instead of that, this administration let the Republicans talk them into more tax cuts. Five years ago I would have been thrilled with an administration that did as much as Obama has in terms of our energy policy. In this context, however, it is just simply not enough.

My other criticism has to do with the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009. I think this conference was completely ineffective. They failed to hit all of the targets they proposed. They failed to address many of the concerns that the world's climate experts had. Obama cannot be blamed for a world wide failure. He did do about a billion times more than his predecessor. The major stumbling block at Copenhagen has to deal with the gap between developed and growing countries. The prevailing logic is that climate change is a problem that affects everyone so everyone should share equally in the solution. I completely disagree. The developed countries have had an 80 year head start to do any kind of environmental damage they wanted to. Now that the problem has to be fixed, the developed countries are going to tell under-developed countries to have an equal share of the responsibility. We are going to ask countries that are just beginning to acquire industry to completely retool their infrastructure without any aid. How much compensation and help poor developing countries get to develop their industry is the major sticking point of these talks. A related issue is how we deal with the growth of emerging economies (India, China, and Brazil). I do not think that the environment is only America’s problem to fix. I am suggesting that America has benefited the most from a destructive environmental policy. I think that we are the biggest part of this problem and we have to be the biggest part of the solution. The leader of America has to bear the biggest share of the blame. Sucky deal, but that is how it is.

Health care C-

Let me say I am for health care reform. I don’t think it can wait. My main problem with health care and this administration is not what was proposed, but how they went about doing it. There are a few things I would like to see done differently. First, they gave Congress too much wiggle room. They tried to learn a lesson from the Clinton administration. In 1992 the Clinton white house tried to spell out a detailed health care plan. This approach failed miserably as the opposition could use parts of the plan that were unsound to discredit the entire process. The Obama approach was to give broad parameters and allow congress to come up with the solution. The problem with this approach is that a significant part of the Congress is unwilling to work with this administration. By not defining what it wants accomplished, the administration allowed the political enemies of the White House to paint any kind of picture they wanted. Obama allowed his adversaries to frame the debate in a context of their choosing. An issue as complex has health care cannot be left to the enemies of reform to explain to the American people. This was a fundamental failing of the administration.

My second criticism regarding health care is that the administration was not more confrontational with Congress (at least in public). They allowed a few senators to dictate the debate with no political cost to them. They could have done more to make it more costly to oppose health care reform. I think putting the negotiations on CSPAN may have been impractical, but I think would have helped the White House. It would allow the administration to go directly to the people and take issue with those that opposed reform.

Now, after all the back room deals and compromises were done and after a year of headache and a ton of spent “political capital,” THERE IS STILL NO BILL!!!! Truthfully I am not even sure I want the proposed bill. Any other year I would be happier than a pig in slop, but fixing this problem is so necessary for our success as a country. I think this reform has to be transformative. Our health care system does not need to be tweaked. IT NEEDS TO BE FIXED!!!! The plans that Obama campaigned on were outstanding. The things that the White House eventually proposed were great. I think the administration underestimated their position. I do not believe the health care debate is over. THIS ISSUE IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY. The problem is too big and too important not to be dealt with. I have confidence that in the future this president will get this done. This is one of the top 3 things I wanted to see this administration do. This grade is based on what he has done not what I think he can do.

Military C

Barack Obama inherited 2 wars. He inherited a war in Iraq that I will always argue should never have been fought. He also inherited a war in Afghanistan that has been grossly mismanaged during the last 8 years, and criminally under funded. The Iraq War shows signs of improvement. Most analysts are optimistic. The problem is that the best estimates still claim we will still have 50,000 troops in Iraq 2 years from now. This is a far cry from the campaign promise that all of our troops will be out by “next year.” Truthfully, although I am disappointed, the campaign promise may have been unrealistic. I do not have any major problems with the way the administration is dealing with Iraq.

I have stated in an earlier article (The Big A: http://spoon-spoonworld.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html) that I have major problems with the strategy in Afghanistan. I believe we are making a fundamental mistake. We have terrain that does not lend itself to conventional war. We have a culture and a language that we are struggling to understand with many times less than reliable intelligence. The most important factor is that we have a corrupt government that is COMPLETELY WORTHLESS. To be successful in Afghanistan we have to make deals with completely unscrupulous people. Because of the decentralized nature of the country, we are not only going to make these deals, but we are going to have to make lots of them. Most people in Afghanistan trust the local government more than the national government. In many cases, the Taliban is the local government. I believe the amount of resources we will have to commit to win this war will not be worth it. I will say that this war has been messed up for 8 years so Obama at least gets 2 years to try to fix it.

Very closely related with Afghanistan is the conflict with Pakistan. I think this administration has done well to link Pakistan with success in Afghanistan. The major issue I have with Pakistan is the use of drones. We are inflicting collateral damage on civilian populations in an attempt to kill terrorists. This introduces an element of American hypocrisy when we tell Israel and Palestine not to hurl rockets at each other in the name of freedom or national security. I think this policy completely undermines the good we are trying to do in the Muslim world. Using drones make the people in Pakistan less likely to help us and at the same time allows radical Islamic factions to make a good case against us when recruiting.

One of the most reckless aspects of these 2 wars was how ill prepared America was. I am not referring to technology or the readiness of our military. I am talking about the cost of having a prolonged engagement. We did not have the necessary infrastructure to support a multi-year engagement. Paying medical benefits for hundreds of thousands of people, the GI Bill, and providing counseling for all those that need it are things that should have been in place BEFORE THE LAST ADMINISTRATION COMMITTED US TO 2 WARS. Obama’s legislation to reform the VA and to fund them a year in advance were important steps to fixing this problem.

This is only half of the things I am rating this president on. This article has grown longer than I have anticipated. I will post the rest of my evaluation as well as my total grade for this administration in the next article. In the interim, I would love to hear how you rate this administration on what they have done in these areas so far.